Chapter 1: The Stakes of COP28

Our planet hangs in a precarious balance. The carbon budget has been severely depleted, leaving us with only a handful of years to avert disaster. Immediate, unified, and extensive action is essential to prevent a global crisis. Consequently, COP28 could be the most crucial climate summit ever held, and arguably the most significant international gathering overall. However, it is taking place in the UAE, a nation built on fossil fuels, and is chaired by Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of one of the world's largest oil corporations. This glaring conflict of interest raises concerns, yet there are signs of rapid progress at COP28. Nonetheless, underlying issues suggest that self-interest may overshadow the summit's objectives. Thus, we must consider: Is COP28 a genuine revolution or merely a façade?

The most notable positive development thus far is the commitment from over 110 nations to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements. Almost all G20 countries have signed on, which is significant given that they contribute to 80% of global emissions. While China and India, major polluters, have not formally committed, they have expressed support. The UAE aims to include this pledge in the final agreement, which would require nearly 200 countries to commit.

Video: What happened at #COP28?

This video provides an overview of the events and discussions that took place at COP28, highlighting the key moments and reactions.

Is this commitment sufficient? According to the IEA and IRENA, to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, renewable energy capacity must reach between 11,008 GW and 11,174 GW by 2030. Currently, we are at approximately 3.6 GW, which is only a fraction of what is needed. Thus, this commitment is indeed significant, especially if it makes it into the final agreement.

In addition to renewable energy, nuclear power is also gaining attention at COP28. Although nuclear power often faces skepticism, its carbon emissions can be as low, or even lower than, those from renewable sources. Safety concerns are often exaggerated; nuclear energy results in fewer fatalities per unit of energy produced compared to renewables and significantly fewer than fossil fuels. Moreover, nuclear energy can provide consistent power, which is crucial for a stable net-zero energy grid. It is encouraging to see that over 20 countries have advocated for tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050, including the US, Japan, and the UK. This indicates that fears regarding nuclear safety may be overstated, especially since Japan and Ukraine, both impacted by nuclear accidents, have endorsed this initiative.

However, amidst these pledges for clean energy, there are also movements to curtail oil production. One key player remains conspicuously silent. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plans to join OPEC+ in 2024, not to protect Brazil's oil interests but to drive change within the industry. He emphasized the need for oil-producing nations to prepare for a transition away from fossil fuels, advocating for investments in renewable resources in Latin America.

In contrast, other significant oil-producing countries have taken more decisive actions. Colombia, a major oil producer, has called for an end to new fossil fuel developments by joining the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, which also includes various global entities and cities.

According to the IEA, fossil fuel expansion needed to cease in 2022 to meet climate targets. While this move may be late, it is crucial as it pressures other oil-producing nations, including the US and the UAE, to follow suit. However, the UAE has remained largely quiet about reducing oil production, despite its significant role in exacerbating climate change.

Regrettably, this is where the positive news ends, giving way to troubling developments. Over the weekend, 50 of the world’s largest oil and gas companies pledged to achieve net-zero operations by 2050. While this seems promising at first glance, it only addresses emissions from production, ignoring the emissions generated from burning fossil fuels. For context, burning a single 42-gallon barrel of oil produces 426.10 kg of CO2, whereas producing that barrel generates just 42.61 kg of CO2. Thus, this pledge offers little in terms of reducing the industry's overall emissions, particularly given the lengthy timeline to achieve net-zero operations.

As a result, the only true way to decarbonize oil and gas is to halt production immediately. Carroll Muffett, president of the Center for International Environmental Law, remarked that "anything short of this is just more industry greenwash."

Concerns regarding the integrity of COP28's president, Sultan Al Jaber, have also been validated. During a live event on November 21, he made alarming comments when confronted by Mary Robinson, former UN special envoy for climate change. Al Jaber dismissed critical questions, asserting that there is no scientific basis for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels to meet the 1.5C target. He further demanded a roadmap for achieving sustainable socioeconomic development without fossil fuels, which is demonstrably misguided. Numerous scientific studies demonstrate that reaching the 1.5-degree target necessitates a near-total phase-out of fossil fuels.

Moreover, research consistently shows that renewables are more beneficial for the economy than fossil fuels, creating more and higher-paying jobs while enhancing energy independence. A recent study found that profits from green energy were 367% higher than those from fossil fuels over the past decade.

Ultimately, the progress seen at COP28 seems to occur in spite of the UAE and Al Jaber, rather than due to their efforts. The global community appears ready to implement significant changes to protect the planet. However, those tasked with leading this effort are largely sidelined, promoting anti-scientific rhetoric. The situation reveals the true motivation of oil-rich nations: prioritizing profit over planetary health. They will face a choice: adapt to the global shift towards renewables or suffer the consequences of their inaction. What will it be, Al Jaber? At this moment, COP28 may not be a farce, but your role in it certainly raises concerns.

Video: What were the key outcomes at COP28?

This video discusses the main outcomes of COP28, examining the pledges made and the implications for global climate action.

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(Originally published on PlanetEarthAndBeyond.co)

Sources: France24, BBC, Sky, The Guardian, Climate Change News, IEA, Ember