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Banning New Fossil Fuel Projects: A Path to Climate Goals

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Introduction

One of the most frequently asked questions I encounter regarding carbon emissions is: why are new fossil fuel projects still being approved? Isn’t that a step backward? Allowing new projects while aiming to reduce emissions feels like trying to bail water out of a sinking boat that has too many leaks. Spoiler alert: it is!

Fortunately, we are not alone in this concern. Recent scientific research offers valuable insights on the matter.

The Case Against New Fossil Fuel Projects

A recent publication by Dr. Fergus Green and his team, featured in Science, compellingly advocates for the cessation of new fossil fuel projects. Their research indicates that the ongoing expansion of fossil fuel production directly undermines global efforts to achieve the objectives outlined in the Paris Agreement.

The authors propose a bold alternative: halt the approval of new fossil fuel extraction and energy generation initiatives. It may sound radical, but the rationale is straightforward.

Conceptual image of renewable energy solutions

The core message of the study is both simple and impactful: the world does not require new fossil fuel projects to fulfill its energy needs and climate objectives. This conclusion stands firm even against claims from various organizations.

After thoroughly analyzing a wide range of data, the researchers determined that current fossil fuel infrastructure is adequate to provide the necessary energy in a scenario where global warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Their study reviewed multiple scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, confirming that existing oil, gas, and coal projects can meet future energy demands as we transition to cleaner alternatives.

In short, we do not need any more fossil fuel projects—none at all.

The Consensus from Leading Authorities

Interestingly, Green and his colleagues are not alone in their conclusions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) clearly stated in its 2023 report that new fossil fuel extraction projects are unnecessary for achieving net zero emissions by 2050. This finding challenges the narrative some governments and industry stakeholders have propagated, often without substantial evidence, that new projects are vital during the transition to renewable energy.

Graph showcasing energy demand and fossil fuel production

One of the significant strengths of the study—and likely a point of contention for many—is its examination of the economic, political, and legal factors associated with ceasing new fossil fuel projects. The authors contend that preventing new projects is less challenging than decommissioning existing ones.

Once a fossil fuel project is operational, substantial investments have already been made, and the financial interests of the companies involved lie in prolonging operations to recover these investments. This phenomenon creates “infrastructure lock-in,” complicating the closure of existing projects.

Furthermore, from a political standpoint, companies and labor unions typically lobby more vigorously against regulations that threaten current jobs and investments than those affecting prospective projects. It is also often more politically viable for legislators to impose stringent regulations on newcomers than on established entities. Altering a license after it has been granted can often be nearly impossible from a legal perspective.

Additionally, there are legal hurdles to shutting down existing operations, particularly those involving foreign investors who may invoke international trade and investment treaties to safeguard their interests. However, decisions regarding the approval or denial of new projects are generally less encumbered by such constraints and are subject to rigorous scrutiny.

Establishing a Global Norm

The authors further suggest the establishment of a global norm against new fossil fuel projects. Historical shifts in social and moral standards, such as the abolition of slavery and the prohibition of nuclear weapons testing, illustrate that committed groups can instigate significant change by raising awareness about the harms of specific practices and rallying support for bans.

Encouragingly, some elements of this norm are already surfacing. For example, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) and the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) have members who have pledged to stop granting new licenses for oil and gas exploration, as well as new coal power stations. The UN Secretary-General has also called on nations to halt new fossil fuel projects. The research posits that institutionalizing a “No New Fossil” norm can be achieved by building on these existing efforts, making it easier to phase out fossil fuels and meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Image symbolizing collective action against fossil fuels

The authors propose that adopting a “No New Fossil” policy would clearly communicate the dangers and counterproductive nature of new fossil fuel projects, shifting policy focus toward enhancing investments in renewable energy. This strategy could also facilitate the just and equitable decline of existing fossil fuel infrastructure—a win-win outcome.

Dr. Fergus Green from UCL emphasizes the clarity of this norm, stating, “Complex, long-term goals like ‘net zero emissions by 2050’ lack these features, but ‘no new fossil fuel projects’ is a clear and immediate demand, against which all current governments, and the fossil fuel industry, can rightly be judged. It should serve as a litmus test of whether a government is serious about tackling climate change: if they’re allowing new fossil fuel projects, then they’re not serious.”

Co-author Dr. Steve Pye from UCL’s Energy Institute adds, “Importantly, our research establishes that there is a rigorous scientific basis for the proposed norm by showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects. The clarity that this norm brings should help focus policy on targeting the required ambitious scaling of renewable and clean energy investment while managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in an equitable and just way.”

The Path Forward

To those who have been questioning the validity of halting new fossil fuel projects—I now have a clear answer: the case is compelling and backed by robust scientific evidence. Governments can make significant strides toward their climate commitments by concentrating on this straightforward and achievable goal. Establishing a norm against new fossil fuel projects aligns with scientific consensus, simplifying the pathway to a sustainable energy future.

As Dr. Fergus Green and his colleagues have demonstrated, this approach is not only vital but also practical and impactful. By pledging to stop new fossil fuel projects, we can take a crucial step in safeguarding our planet for generations to come. What excites me most about collective action for meaningful causes is the creativity we can harness. Often, the simplest path leads us further.

Chapter 2: Video Insights on Fossil Fuel Projects

The first video, "IEA: Cancel all fossil fuel projects to meet climate goals | Money Talks," discusses the critical need to halt new fossil fuel projects to achieve climate targets.

The second video, "Fossil Fuel Bans are hazardous to our health writes Chris Uhlmann," explores the potential health risks associated with fossil fuel bans.

Published in The New Climate. Follow for the latest in climate action.

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